One of the first closely watched seasonal outlooks for what the European winter holds sees colder and drier weather than usual across the U.K. and Northern Europe, conditions that could add pressure on governments and companies managing the continent’s supply of natural gas.

The U.K. Meteorological Office on Monday said there was an increased likelihood of the next three months being colder than normal with average temperatures likely to sit between four and just-below six degrees Celsius, equivalent to between 39.2 and 42.8 degrees Fahrenheit, in the U.K., which is slightly below the average seen over the last five years. The forecasting agency added that it was also likely to be drier than normal, with lower chances of heavy rainfall between November and January.

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