The prospect of coronavirus vaccines on the horizon has boosted hopes of an end to the pandemic-wrought downturn—but first the global economy could face a long and difficult winter.

Government restrictions and consumers’ fear of infection will continue to weigh on the global economy well into next year, even as vaccine developments offer hope of an end to the pandemic, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday.

When the world’s economy does come back, China will emerge as the big winner, according to the research body, accounting for as much as one-third of next year’s recovery, as Western countries slowly shake off the effects of 2020’s record-setting contractions.

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