2024 Elections Recap

2024 Elections Recap

2024 is poised to be a year of contentious elections around the globe, heralding a new age of shifting geopolitical dynamics that could provide opportunities as well as adversities. With some votes already tallied and others still on the campaign trail, here is a recap of the biggest ones HighGround has their eyes on.

European Commission Elections

The European Commission elections were held in June resulting in a shift to the political right for the European Parliament. The Christian Democrats and the Socialists remain the dominant forces within the legislature, but a larger portion of nationalistic parties will make EU-wide bills more difficult to pass. The European Green party lost 18 seats, now holding just 53 of the 720 total, meaning that climate initiatives will likely face greater challenges over the next five years as well. Big moves were seen in Germany, where the far-right Alternative for Germany party overtook the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s reigning Social Democratic party, and in Italy where the Brothers of Italy (Fdl), Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party, won more than 28% of the vote.

French Parliamentary Elections

Following the results of the European Commission election, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the lower house of parliament calling for a snap election that proved to be equally as divisive. No party came close to a majority win, splitting the country into three factions. The New Popular Front, an alliance of leftist parties, won the most seats in parliament, followed by Macron’s pro-business Renaissance party, and lastly the far-right National Rally party, came in third, with all groups signaling they won’t form a government with the others. The next point of order is to elect a new prime minister that Macron must agree to appoint, which also faces turmoil. The outcome of the election suggests that France is poised for a period of greater volatility in the coming years

UK General Election

In May, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called for the UK national election to be held on July 4 and the result saw an end to the 14 year reign of the Tory party in a landslide loss of over 250 seats to the Labor Party. Early promises of the Labor party include reducing hospital waiting times, improved economic stability with no hikes to income tax rates or the consumption tax, scrapping the measure to ship asylum seekers to Rwanda, enhanced ties with the US and NATO, and bolster Britain’s relationship with the EU eight years after the controversial decision to leave the bloc (Brexit) which went into effect in 2020. While the new ruling party does not see rejoining the EU in the future, a key priority is seeking a veterinary agreement which would reduce border checks for animal products and improve trade with the EU, a solid gain for many British farmers.

India General Election

More than 640 million votes were cast in India’s general election that resulted in Narendra Modi being sworn in for his third five-year term as Prime Minister. Although his National Democratic Alliance party, led by the Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party retained power, unlike the elections in 2014 and 2019 they failed to secure a majority victory. For the first time the BJP under Modi required the support from its regional allies, the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United) to stay in power. Modi’s supporters have championed him for rapid economic growth within the country and improving India’s global standing, while his dissenters criticize him for repression of free speech and media, increased violence against Muslim citizens, and growing wealth inequality. Currently, the country grapples with the longest heatwave to ever hit India resulting in human and animal fatalities as well as negative impacts to food production, bringing a rough start to Modi’s third term.

Mexico General Election

For the first time in Mexico’s 200-year history a woman, Claudia Sheinbaum, was elected as President on June 2, 2024. The favored successor of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Sheinbaum reportedly won between 58.3% and 60.7% of the vote with her Morena party also projected to hold its majorities in both chambers of Congress. While the Presidential election appeared to be harmonious, smaller elections throughout the country were met with bloodshed after a total of 37 candidates running for local offices were assassinated leading up to the general election. Violent crime continues to plague the country driven by a national war between rival Cartel groups with many citizens doubtful of the government’s ability to stifle Cartel power.

Russia General Election 

An unsurprising outcome to say the least, current President Vladimir Putin won in a landslide victory with 88% of the vote on March 17, 2024, shortly after his primary rival, Alexei Navalny, died of “sudden death syndrome” in an Arctic prison only a month prior. The new term gives Putin six more years in power that will see him overtake Josef Stalin’s nearly 30-year reign if completed. The election results bring little change to the country with Putin announcing in his victory speech that he would prioritize resolving the war with Ukraine and strengthen the Russian military. Following the election, the European Union placed further sanctions on Russia aiming to close loopholes and hit Russia’s gas exports for the first time. The measure applies additional sanctions to Belarus as well.

US General Election

The anxiously awaited US general election will take place Tuesday, November 2, 2024. Although official party nominees for president have yet to be chosen as the Democratic National Convention will be held August 19-22, 2024 while the Republican National Convention will take place July 15-18, 2024, current President Joe Biden is the presumed Democratic nominee while former President Donald Trump is the presumed Republican nominee. Tensions in the US continue to mount with both parties drastically opposed to one another. After a humiliating performance that required a profuse amount of fact checking on both sides at the first presidential debate of 2024 held on June 27, several Democrats in Congress called for Biden to step down from the race to which he refused. Meanwhile, Trump, a now convicted felon on 34 counts, celebrated the Supreme Court decision that former presidents have absolute immunity from prosecution for official acts that fall within their “exclusive sphere of constitutional authority”, making it all but certain Trump will not face trial for his actions on January 6, 2021 in Washington ahead of the November election.