Market Intel Team|15 February 2023
- Early December figures are pointing to a 0.8-1.0% growth rate for EU-27+UK milk production, driven by volume gains from Germany (+79,050MT YOY). Offsetting half of those increases was a drop-off from Italy, DOWN 39,130MT YoY. Other notable areas of strength continued to be from the Netherlands (+46,500MT YoY), and to a lesser extent Ireland (+19,750MT YoY), the UK (+19,510MT YoY) and Poland (+17,430MT YoY).
- Skim milk powder (SMP) exports reached six-month highs on considerable strength over prior year (+12,603MT YoY, the biggest YoY volume gain since August 2019). Algeria was the biggest trade partner during the month at 7,317MT, +63% from prior year and accounting for 11% market share. However, the country to report the biggest gain over prior year was Vietnam with the EU shipping 4,644MT versus 1,116MT last year and the highest to the country since October 2018. While exports to Vietnam were strong, SMP sailing to the entire Southeast Asia region fell below prior year levels for the 13th consecutive month, DOWN 14.5% YoY. Shipments to Morocco reached multi-year highs (June 2014) of 5,697MT, +130% from prior year.
- Cheese exports were DOWN versus the prior year for the fourth consecutive month, falling to the lowest reading since January 2022 driven by a significant reduction in shipments to the Ukraine (-3,030MT or -56%). Declines were also notable to top destination countries of the United States (-951MT or -9%) and Japan (-806MT or -9%), but were partially offset by a large increase to South Korea, which were UP 2,385MT (+70%) against prior year. For full-year 2022, cheese exports were below 2021 due to major losses to Ukraine (-19,940MT or -38%) and China (-9,780MT or -25%).
- Fat-filled milk powder exports fell to the lowest reading on record since the HS Code was officially formed in 2020. Declines were observed into the top three destination countries of Senegal (-2,277MT or -29%), Nigeria (-2,579MT or -48%) and United Arab Emirates (-1,232MT or -36%), all of which overcame smaller gains to Bangladesh (+721MT or +76%), Egypt (+577MT or +98%), and Dominican Republic (+676MT or +217%). Similarly, whole milk powder exports fell to a new record low in December due to marginal losses to a wide variety of countries.
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