Market Intel Team|07 February 2023
- A strong push into China continued for the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year gains. Their need for ingredients remains a key driver with strong lactose (10,465MT, +74% YoY) and whey volumes observed yet again (dry whey: 9,366MT, +152% YoY | WPC>80%: 5,812MT, +100% YoY), pushing shipments into China to the highest level observed for December on record. Nonfat dry milk (NFDM) exports were also notable, a five-month high (4,683MT, +50% YoY). Total trade with Japan and South Korea also remained elevated, yet shipments to Southeast Asia have fallen for five months in a row, driven by lower NFDM exports; December NFDM exports to Southeast Asia were the lowest since August 2019.
- Cheese exports finished 2022 well above 2021, driven by increased shipments to Mexico, representing the strongest market share at 31%. Shipments to the country were UP 2,569MT (+30%) in December and UP 18,832MT (+20%) year-to-date. Higher volumes were also observed to South Korea (+2,036MT or +60%) which maintained the position of second strongest destination market (15% market share), followed by Japan (+1,167MT or +42%) at 11%. While cheese exports remained positive into the end of 2022, recent price strength will limit export opportunities throughout 2023 as the decline in EU cheese prices draws more international demand.
- Nonfat dry milk shipments remained well above last year and 2020 levels in December but remains below the lofty levels recorded in 2019. Higher December exports were primarily driven by increased volume to Mexico, UP 8,782MT (+35%) from prior year, however, year-to-date shipments to the country are UP 7% against the previous year. Export growth to China was notable during the month (+1,551MT or +50%), as well as into Colombia (+1,273MT or +43%) but they were partially offset by declines to Vietnam (-4,539MT or -72%) and the Philippines (-2,000MT or -23%).
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