In August 2026, HighGround published SNAP: Policy Changes Result in Lower Participation and Reduced Grocery Spend analyzing the decline in SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) participation over the past year The report examined the impact of work requirement changes included in the Budget Reconciliation Bill (One Big Beautiful Bill), which took effect in October 2025, and the resulting potential reduction in grocery spending as it relates to the dairy sector. At the time of publication, USDA had not released an updated SNAP spending analysis since 2011. However, more recent data has since become available, providing greater insight into how SNAP dollars are spent at grocery stores. Updated participation figures through July 2026 also offer a clearer picture of the program’s reach.
As of July 2026, all changes in SNAP work requirements were in effect, and any extension waivers had lapsed. SNAP participants declined 13.3%, or roughly 5.5 million Americans, in July 2026 compared to July 2025, prior to the implementation of the Budget Reconciliation Bill. Although USDA may significantly revise the July 2026 participation data, the trend of more than 10% fewer SNAP participants compared to 2025 has persisted since April 2026, suggesting that changes established under the Budget Reconciliation Bill have contributed to a substantial decline in participation. Fewer participants translate to fewer SNAP dollars available for grocery purchases, including dairy products, potentially weighing on retail dairy purchasing and consumption.
SNAP Persons Participation
Year-over-year % change by state · July 2026
Source: USDA Food and Nutrition Service (data as of October 9, 2026). *Data subject to revisions: July 2026 figures are initial. The map shows the 50 states; the US total is the USDA national total, which also includes DC, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Although there are fewer participants in the SNAP program today than a year ago, and thus fewer overall dollars being spent, Americans are also allocating a larger share of their grocery budgets to dairy products. In the 2011 study, USDA found that roughly 9% of the participants’ allotted monthly SNAP benefits were spent on dairy products, while in the 2023 USDA study partnered with Circana, that spending grew to 10.9%. Dairy, which includes eggs, now ranks as the most purchased food category among SNAP participants. USDA also found that dairy represents a larger share of total grocery spending than any other food category among both SNAP and non-SNAP households, overtaking the 2011 leader: carbonated soft drinks.
The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic brought an observable shift in consumer perceptions of health and nutrition. Growing interest in exercise, muscle maintenance, healthy aging, and the rise of GLP-1 medications have driven greater demand for protein, with many consumers turning to dairy to meet their needs. Food manufacturers have increasingly incorporated high-protein whey protein concentrates and isolates to boost the protein content of foods ranging from bakery products to snacks and beyond. Consumption of yogurt, cottage cheese, and ultra-filtered milk has also seen tremendous growth in recent years, as evidenced by increased production of these products and retail data provided by Dairy Management Inc. Rising dairy purchases among both SNAP and non-SNAP households further highlight the broader increase in dairy demand across the income spectrum.
One similarity that persisted from the 2011 USDA study to the 2023 report was that fluid milk and natural American cheese remained the top two most purchased dairy items. However, these products accounted for a greater share of SNAP spending in 2011 than in 2023. Importantly, USDA specifically cautions against comparing the two studies because different data sources, classification systems, and methods for identifying SNAP transactions were used. For this reason, HighGround has elected to focus on the more recent 2023 data to better understand dairy spending patterns among SNAP households in 2026.
Share of Dairy Grocery Spending, SNAP vs. Non-SNAP Households
Percent of all food-at-home spending, all payment methods, 2023.
Source: USDA FNA, Food-At-Home Purchases by SNAP Households in 2023, Online Supplement (product level); Circana Consumer Network Panel.
A broad comparison of the 2011 and 2023 reports indicates that the ranking of dairy product categories among SNAP purchases has changed little over the years. Yogurt continues to rank third overall, while butter remains below ice cream and frozen novelties. However, the new 2023 report separates processed cheese and deli cheese from natural cheese, whereas the 2011 report did not. When these categories are combined, total cheese accounts for 28.8% of total dairy spending, overtaking fluid milk at 20.2%.
A further breakdown of the cheese category provides some interesting insights. Circana defines the deli cheese category as cheese purchased at or from the deli counter, separate from packaged cheese. Approximately 80% of this category consists of specialty cheeses such as fresh mozzarella, Hispanic-style cheeses, feta, Parmesan, Brie, and goat cheese. Production data, along with additional retail purchasing insights from Dairy Management Inc., suggest these cheeses are growing in popularity. While deli cheese accounts for a larger share of total grocery spending among non-SNAP households than SNAP households, the opposite is true for Hispanic-style cheeses.
A clear standout in the 2023 data is that dairy represents a larger portion of non-SNAP households’ total grocery spending than SNAP households’ in almost every dairy category. Deli cheese, yogurt, butter, and cottage cheese show the largest discrepancies. USDA does not explain why, but these differences could be due to SNAP households buying less of each category, paying lower prices for these products than non-SNAP households, or spending more on other foods. USDA also notes that income differences between SNAP and non-SNAP households are significant, which could play a role in their food selections.
In HighGround’s original analysis, a breakdown was provided of the impact on dairy spending due to the reduction in SNAP participants. An updated analysis is provided below using the July 2026 SNAP participation data, along with the updated 2023 reported percentage of total grocery spending on dairy products.
Using USDA’s estimate of average SNAP spending of $187.20 per person per month, multiplied by the number of SNAP participants in July 2026, equates to $6.8 billion in total spending. If dairy represents 10.9% of this amount, total dairy spending in July 2026 would be $739 million. Using these same metrics but applying them to the number of SNAP participants in July 2025, prior to the implementation of new work requirements, total dairy spending would be $852 million, and the decline in dairy spending from July 2025 to July 2026 would be $113 million. This is larger than the $90 million decline in dairy spending reported in HighGround’s initial analysis for two reasons. First, dairy’s share of total grocery spending is larger in the 2023 USDA report compared to the 2011 report. Second, the decline in SNAP participants between July 2025 and July 2026 is larger than in the initial analysis, which used April 2025 to April 2026 data. The estimated decline in SNAP spending across individual dairy categories has also changed, reflecting the updated breakdown provided in the 2023 USDA SNAP spending report.
| Commodity | Percent of Total SNAP Expenditures | Million Dollars Lost Per Month Due to Lower SNAP Spending |
|---|---|---|
| Total Dairy | 10.90% | $113.0 |
| Fluid Milk | 2.32% | $24.0 |
| Natural Cheese | 2.13% | $22.0 |
| Yogurt | 1.16% | $11.9 |
| Ice Cream | 1.03% | $10.6 |
| Frozen Novelties | 0.75% | $7.7 |
| Butter | 0.73% | $7.6 |
Source: USDA FNA, Food-At-Home Purchases by SNAP Households in 2023, Online Supplement (product level); Circana Consumer Network Panel; HighGround estimates.
Between HighGround’s initial analysis using the 2011 data and the updated analysis using 2023 data, along with the change from April 2025–2026 to July 2025–2026 SNAP participation figures, the estimated loss in dairy spending has changed. However, the overarching theme has not.
The reduction in SNAP participants following the implementation of more stringent work requirements established in the Budget Reconciliation Bill means there are roughly $1 billion fewer SNAP dollars being spent monthly on groceries, translating to an estimated $113 million reduction in monthly dairy spending.
The initial analysis pointed to the consequential rise in demand for Food Banks due to the loss of SNAP benefits and this likely still holds true. US consumer sentiment marked the second lowest reading on record in October 2026 only behind the reading in May 2026. September 2026 inflation came in at 3.7%, driven by rising fuel costs, which are also pushing prices for other products, including food, higher. The jobs market remains murky, with an increase in layoff announcements in October, and inflation that is rising faster than wage gains. Consumer debt is further ballooning, coupled with an increase in Fed interest rates in September and more expected on the horizon. The economic outlook for many Americans remains challenging, and while dairy has become a top-purchased food category among SNAP participants, the reduction in available dollars through the SNAP program could present an additional headwind to growth in dairy sales and consumption.
